Thursday, July 22, 2010

Trading the retracement


Hi guys :)

Its another good trade today. the gbp/jpy fell from yesterday's high at around 133.75 to today's current low at 131.8. note that the 1st chart on the left is 1 hour chart followed by 15 min and 5 min charts. after a big bull candle showed up (point no 7), i quickly pull fibo from d high to d low. the objective was to look for a selling opportunity if it retrace by 50%. remember what i told u? the pounds most of the time like 50% retracement.
  • after a strong rally (due to a strong support - 131.30) to 50% fibo, i become excited to short this pair. u might ask me " hafiz, looking at d shadow, the price seems to rally up to 62% fibo. so which 1 should i take? the body or the shadow? ". u have to pick ur poison mates!
  • if u trade at the 50% fibo which is around 132.40, u might not want the price to go above the next resistance which is at 132.75 (notice a short black horizontal line slightly above the 62% fibo).
  • in my case, i short in between 50% and 62% fibo. i do this when i am uncertain whether to pick the body or d shadow.
  • after i short at 132.62, i pull fibo from point 8 to 9 to calculate my potential reward. my best target would be at 50% fibo of that swing. BUT, i have to be careful because the US market is about to open and there will be an announcement on unemployment claims. hence, 38% fibo will be my 1st profit target.
  • after few candles, the price moved sideways. at that time, i just do not want the price to move above point 5. if it does, i will cut my loss or just breakeven whenever i have d chance.
  • 5 min before the announcement, i was already making 20 pips over. to reduce my risk, i closed few positions
  • with some luck on my side, the price went down further due to a bad data!
  • i decided to be happy with 40 pips plus.
  • as u can see from d chart above, it broke the support level at no 6. this indicates that it could fall further. but again, US market is due to open in an hour and it is best for me to take d money out of the table and re-enter again when the condition is on my favor!

    cheers :)

1 comment:

  1. mamma mia! after i closed the trade, it shoot up to 133! lesson to learn - take d money out of the table before u regret it!

    it seems that the support at 131.30 is very profitable today! god bless for those who profit from it.

    success in trading is no magic!

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